As India embarks on 2022, the country has to face the most challenging geopolitical conditions. What are these conditions, and which will be the most influential?
One of the most crucial alliances for India in the United States. Under the administration of Donald Trump, the bilateral relationship between India and US has advanced rapidly, with the two countries signing three defense agreements and with the USA giving more access to its technologies to India. This did not slacken even during the 1st term of Biden as the president, but some of the promised measures did not transpire.
There are several threats to this US India alliance, one of which is the time-honored India Russia alliance. Even recently, India acquired Russian air defense systems and has a persistent dependency on Russian military supply. This raises the suspicion that the USA will impose the CAATSA act on India. If this act is employed, the India USA relationship will be under a rock.
On the other hand, India had signed a 10-year pact of military resources with Russia.
India suspects that its deepening relations with the USA might drive Russia away from itself and facilitate a Russia-China partnership.
India’s challenges on the border
Russia aligning with China is one of India’s worst concerns, and China is one of the greatest threats to the country. On the other hand, the China-Pakistan alliance is also an upcoming issue. With the rising tension between the China India border, a stable Pakistan India border is a straightforward yet unreachable goal due to the trust obligation between the two countries.
India’s stand in the Ukraine Russia crisis
India is skeptical of taking any steps that might turn Russia against it. Such an instance is India’s stand in the Russia Ukraine crisis, where India’s stand would be a test. India refused to vote in the United Nations, and the Russian government thanked for its support in the Ukraine Invasion. Suppose this year India gives any more stand to Russia. In that case, it is likely to deteriorate the US-India alliance, and the opposite is likely the case if India stands in opposition to the invasion.
It is to be seen how India can maintain the balance between International relationships.